PERT Model and Formula

PERT model and formula

            This formula has me to calculate each task to get a completion time frame from project completion to how long each task will take to complete.  The PERT model can be in minutes, hours, days, months, and years. The formula is:

            Expected Value = (Optimistic + (4 x Most Likely) + Pessimistic) / 6

 

                        EV = (10 + (4 x 15) + 20) / 6

                        EV = (10 + (60) +20) / 6

                        EV = (70 + 20) / 6

                        EV = (90) / 6

                        EV = 15 days is the time it should take me to finish the project.

 

            The PERT model also has a confidence factor formula that will allow you to get a range of how confident you are to completing a task.

            Standard Deviation = (Pessimistic – Optimistic) / 6  

 

                        SD = (20 – 10) / 6

                        SD = (10) / 6

                        SD = 1.66 is my standard deviation

 

To calculate the range of the confidence factor, 87.5 is always plugged in to calculations.

Confidence Factor = 87.5 + (2 x SD)

Confidence Factor = 87.5 – (2 x SD)

            CF = 87.5 + (2 x 1.66)

            CF = 87.5 + (3.32)

            CF = 90.82

            CF = 87.5 – (2 x 1.66)

            CF = 87.5 – (3.32)

            CF = 84.18

My Confidence Factor range to completing this project in 15 days is 90.82 to 84.18 percent.

 

Now I need to calculate all my task completion and their confidence range.

PERT  Project Schedule

These tasks are measured in Hours.

Task

Expected Value

Standard Deviation

Confidence Range

Interviewing

15hrs

1.66hrs

90.82% – 84.18%

Scripting

12hrs

2hrs

91.5% – 83.5%

Filming

48hrs

4hrs

95.5% – 79.5%

Editing

24.33hrs

1.66hrs

90.82% –   84.18%

 

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